What does climate change reveal to us? The events of this year's hurricane season provide a striking illustration.
In October 2025, residents in Jamaica found themselves amid the wreckage left by Hurricane Melissa, a powerful storm that dramatically impacted their lives.
The hurricane season of 2025 presented a fascinating yet perplexing scenario. On one hand, the United States experienced an unusually calm season, with no hurricanes making landfall for the first time since 2015. Remarkably, there was a stretch of about three weeks during the season when no storms developed in the Atlantic at all.
However, the storms that did form were exceptionally intense. "If I had to choose just one word to describe it, I would say 'unusual,'" explains Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher from the University of Miami. Although the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes reached a typical count of 13, many of these were colossal Category 5 hurricanes.
According to Lindsey Long, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "We recorded three Category 5 hurricanes this year, which is the second-highest number for a single season, trailing only behind the extremely active 2005 season." That infamous year saw the emergence of notorious hurricanes such as Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Long attributes the fact that none of the storms this year impacted the U.S. to mere luck.
Years like 2025, characterized by an average total of storms but an above-average occurrence of extremely powerful hurricanes, are becoming increasingly probable due to climate change. This trend is primarily driven by global warming, which leads to significant increases in ocean temperatures. The pollution responsible for climate change—largely emitted from the combustion of fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal—traps excessive heat in the atmosphere, with the oceans absorbing most of this extra warmth.
In recent years, the region of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes typically form has experienced unprecedented temperatures. "That warm water serves as fuel for hurricanes," Long states. "It plays a crucial role in determining the intensity of the storms."
Hurricane Melissa exemplified this phenomenon. As it traversed over unusually warm waters, it gained immense strength, ultimately making landfall in Jamaica as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane in late October. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
Conversely, wind patterns can disrupt storm development. Wind shear, which occurs when there's a significant difference in wind speeds between the upper atmosphere and closer to the surface, can hinder the formation of storms. Long notes that this year saw considerable wind shear, which contributed to maintaining an average total of storms.
Climate models indicate that as global temperatures rise, there will likely be increased wind shear in the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes develop.
This interplay suggests that while a warmer planet may lead to fewer overall hurricanes, a greater proportion of those that do form will be large and powerful.
McNoldy points out, "The 2025 season perfectly illustrates this pattern."
It's important to note that not every hurricane season will unfold in the same manner. Despite ongoing climate warming and consistently elevated ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, there remains considerable variability each year regarding the number and strength of storms that emerge.
But here's where it gets controversial: as we continue to confront climate change, how should we prepare for the potential changes in hurricane behavior? Are we doing enough to mitigate its impacts on vulnerable communities?
