A shocking revelation has emerged from a recent poll: a staggering two-thirds of UK voters believe that immigration is on the rise, despite official data painting a very different picture. This widespread misconception has significant implications for public perception and political discourse.
The poll, conducted by More in Common and shared exclusively with The Guardian, reveals a stark contrast between public opinion and the reality of immigration trends. Despite a significant drop in the number of people entering the UK, with net migration falling by over two-thirds to a post-pandemic low in the year ending June 2025, a large majority of voters still perceive immigration as increasing.
But here's where it gets controversial: this perception gap has led to a crisis of confidence in the government's ability to manage immigration. According to the poll, a whopping 74% of voters expressed little to no trust in the government's handling of immigration, a sharp decline from the previous year. This lack of faith is particularly evident among Labour supporters, with a 17% drop in confidence since 2024.
And this is the part most people miss: the issue of small boats remains a highly visible and critical factor in shaping public perception. Despite making up only a tiny proportion of overall immigration (less than 5% in 2025), the arrival of 43,000 people on small boats in the year ending June 2025 has dominated media coverage and public discourse.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, warns of a growing credibility gap for the Labour government on migration. "Numbers alone are not enough," he says. "Until that credibility gap closes, Labour's migration migraine will persist."
Marley Morris from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) adds that while there is a persistent public cynicism around migration, voter opinion could shift in the coming months as perceptions lag behind the actual data.
The government's efforts to emphasize a tough stance on migration, as reflected in the proposed hardline policies by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, seem to have fallen short. These policies, which include extended wait times for citizenship, asset confiscation for asylum claimants, curbing family reunions, and returning refugees if conditions improve in their home countries, have faced fierce opposition from some Labour MPs.
In a further blow to the government, accurate migration figures have failed to sway public opinion. Fewer than one in five voters credit the government for the decline in net migration, with many attributing it to the previous Conservative government.
The data tells a different story: net migration to the UK peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has since fallen dramatically to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Visa applications to the UK have also plummeted, with skilled worker applications down by 36% and health and care applications down by 51% in 2025.
Migration minister Mike Tapp attributes this decline to Labour's policies, saying, "Net migration is at its lowest level in half a decade... our plans to back British workers and restore order to the broken immigration system are paying off."
However, Kim Johnson, the Labour MP for Liverpool Riverside, warns of the "cost of mimicking Reform," citing a rise in racism and a steep decline in work visas, which could lead to crises in the health and social care sectors.
She calls for a positive alternative vision, one that upholds the rights and dignity of immigrants, to counter the divisive rhetoric and its impact on public opinion and voting behavior.
So, what do you think? Is the government's tough stance on immigration justified, or is it time for a more compassionate and effective approach? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
